Canadian house prices in real terms will fall modestly next year because they out of reach for many buyers and others that want to enter the market can get loans, according to debt assessment firm Fitch Ratings.The country will see house price growth of about 1 per cent, which, when set against inflation of around 2 per cent, will mean a real decline, Fitch said Tuesday in its Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook 2020.think stretched affordability (especially in Toronto and Vancouver) and macro prudential measures that limit the number of borrowers able to qualify for home loans will continue to limit home price growth, Fitch analyst Susan Hosterman wrote. Price growth in both markets has been limited by national lending limits and local purchase restrictions.Of particular concern to Fitch is affordability as average household indebtedness reached 177 per cent of disposable income this year. While Fitch expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 1.75 per cent through next year, an increase to 2 per cent in 2021 and ensuing higher rates could strain the ability of Canadians to repay debt, it said.Affordability could be most stressed in Toronto and in the Vancouver market, where Royal LePage says the average two storey detached house will cost $1.46 million next year, the most in Canada.prices have been steadily declining since 2018 while Toronto prices briefly stalled before growing at a more modest 4 per cent in the year to September, Hosterman said.Still, Fitch expects mortgage arrears to remain near historic lows, at 0.3 per cent next year, as homeowners are bolstered by low unemployment at 5.7 per cent, solid job growth and rising wages.It noted how the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp., the country largest public mortgage backer, is reducing its role in the market with about 20 per cent fewer loans qualifying for government insurance because of tighter restrictions.
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